From the Archive: Zune is not an Xbox
December 2nd, 2007From the Hard Six archive, part of my continuing effort to repost my favorite articles. This was originally posted on 30 November, 2006.
But if Zune1 isn’t an XBox, why does everyone seeking to defend Zune argue that since the XBox was a success, Zune will be too? And no, that J Allard heads up both divisions is not a valid reason. Here’s why: A personal media player (PMP) and a video game console require radically different strategies to succeed. There have been huge successes in both departments: iPod, obviously, for the former, and the Nintendo Entertainment System, then the Playstation for the latter. We can analyze these examples and discover why they worked, and we can adapt this analysis to explain why the XBox is a success, and why Zune won’t be.
Video Game Consoles
After the video game dark age of the mid-Eighties, Nintendo came to the rescue with the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES). On all NES games was the Nintendo Seal of Quality. While the seal by no means meant that all NES games were smash hits, it did prevent gems like Custer’s Revenge from making their way onto the system. Combined with the encryption scheme that Nintendo used to prevent home-brewed games from being made, the NES was a huge hit because it was arguably the first video game system with a solid library of games. It’s flagship game, Super Mario Bros., is the best selling video game of all time.
About ten years after the NES, the original PlayStation came along and proved once again that the games made the system. The PlayStation took the quantity over quality approach to gaming; there are nearly eight thousand PlayStation games.2 By this time, however, the gaming industry had evolved to the point where reviewers could find the gems for the players, so despite an overwhelming ocean of games, the good ones were not that hard to find. The strategy paid off; the PlayStation sold 100 millions units to become the most successful video game console of all time, and it’s sales have only been surpassed by its successor, the PlayStation 2.
Both the NES and the PlayStation were, in terms of sheer hardware, underpowered when compared to their competitors, the Sega Master System and the Nintendo 64,3 respectively. In fact, in six generations of video game consoles, the “most powerful” console has never been the marketshare leader.
The obvious point here is that the games make the system. The goal, when designing a video game system, is to attract developers to your platform. Nintendo did this by developing its own high-quality games and by instituting a screening process to keep out the duds. Sony did this by using their brand name to convince people to jump on, and by making the cost of developing for the PlayStation low through the use of CD-ROMs instead of cartridges.
Personal Media Players
Having been an Apple fan since before I could form coherent sentences, it warms my heart to see little white headphones everywhere. Apple saw a market in which everyone was making shoddy products and they knew they could bring their magic touch to it. It paid off. iPod was a success because it is well designed and easy to use, which exactly what consumers drowning in a sea of Rios and Nomads needed.
What a lot of people don’t realize is that a huge part of iPods success comes from iTunes. I loved Audion, it was a great program. But I can’t say I was sad to see it go, because Audion, while more powerful, couldn’t match iTunes’s simplicity. And when I just wanna listen to some music, it’s all about simplicity. iPod + iTunes delivers.
Apple pushed their advantages with the iTunes store. The three-way combo represents exactly what Apple is good at: vertical integration and simplicity. With Macintosh, Apple engineers the hardware and the software, which gives them advantages no other operating system can ever have. They are often subtle, but they are there. The same is true for iPod + iTunes + iTS. Few consumers are interested in using Napster with Windows Media Player and their Creative Zen. That’s three different programs, three different companies, three places where things can fail to work together. iPod + iTunes makes things easier, which exactly what most users want.
Why the XBox is a Success4
When Microsoft entered the video game market in 2001, I was skeptical.5 But they delivered, and currently have a firm hold on the number two spot among sixth-generation consoles, and I believe they will be the market leader among seventh-generation consoles. Why was the XBox a success?
The strategy for making a good video game console is pretty much, more or less, what Microsoft is already good at: attracting third parties. As early as MS-DOS they were attracting most of the hardware guys, and using their foothold on the market they achieved in the eighties, they went after the software guys. The result was that by the end of the nineties, Microsoft was pretty much the PC industry.6 Apple was teetering on the edge of death and Linux was in its infancy. Their success is in no way is due to Windows being a superior product, but rather that everything had been running on Windows for years, and billions of lines of proprietary code weren’t about to magically rewrite themselves to accommodate less than 5% of computer users.
A video game console is the same routine. Microsoft knew this going in, so they designed the XBox to be incredibly easy to program for, because its hardware was so similar to an off the shelf PC. Porting your game from PS2 to XBox was easy, so why not do it? Furthermore, the XBox team designed a unified online service that was easy for games to utilize, so the developers didn’t have to create their own from scratch, like the PlayStation developers did. Combined with their brilliant acquisition of Bungie Studios to acquire Halo and make it an exclusive title, the XBox grabbed a significant share of the video game market and clung to it.
The XBox 360 follows in its predecessors footsteps and is far easier to program for than the PS3, again this is achieved by using off-the-shelf components. Combined with the fact that Microsoft has managed to nab rights to some of the PS2’s most successful titles and that the XBox 360 costs $200 less than the PS3, its a good bet that XBox 360 takes the lead this generation, albeit a close one. Gosh, maybe It’ll even be profitable.
Why Zune Won’t Be A Success
What Nintendo and Sony proved is necessary to achieve success in the video game console market is a set of skills Microsoft already has. What Apple has proved is necessary to succeed in the Personal Media Player market is something Microsoft lacks completely and can likely never learn.
Zune is a transparent attempt to emulate Apple’s strengths. Zune’s interface is a very good effort to emulate iPod’s, but in the end it is little more than a ripoff. It adds a few nuances that the pundits are divided on; some argue they make it easier to use, others, including myself, argue that it adds unnecessary complication. The Zune Marketplace deserves less praise, as the Microsoft Point system is really nothing more than an insult to users’ intelligence, and is without movies or TV shows.
But, what is unquestionably the worst decision regarding Zune and in my opinion, the knockout blow, is lack of PlaysForSure compliance. While the motivation behind this is another obvious attempt to emulate Apple by forcing vertical integration, Microsoft isn’t Apple, and never will be. By excluding PlaysForSure content, Microsoft alienates their largest potential Zune market: people who don’t own an iPod. Zune could probably have reached a 15-20% marketshare among that 30% Apple doesn’t hold, but instead, those users will continue to buy Sansas and Gigabeats, while Zune will languish with next to nothing. With Zune, Microsoft could have played to their strengths and went after that 30% who are there because they “prefer choice;”7 instead they went head-to-head with iPod, which is obvious suicide. Frankly, I’m surprised Microsoft did this.
That fact that company X is good at Y has no direct bearing on whether or not they will be good at Z. I hope Apple never attempts (again) to enter the video game market, they would probably fail miserably. Every company has a set of strengths and weaknesses, and companies succeed by going after opportunities that play to their strengths. The majority of the PMP market is not an opportunity that plays to Microsoft’s strengths, and simply emulating a company that has those strengths isn’t good enough.
- iPod purposely does not use a definite article. Since everything else about Zune is a ripoff of iPod, Microsoft uses the same convention.«
- This figure includes each localization of games that were released in multiple regions. See Cumulative Number of Software Titles.«
- I suppose the Sega Saturn competed with the PlayStation, but it sold so poorly that most gamers consider it nothing more than, well, a footnote.«
- Whether or not the XBox is actually a success is a pretty big point of contention. The XBox is neither profitable nor a marketshare leader—unless you only count seventh-generation consoles, which is sheer silliness. When I (and others) say the XBox is a success, I refer to the fact that the XBox managed to grab a healthy chunk of video game console marketshare and the XBox 360’s future looks very bright. I also refer to the fact that the XBox is the first product to come out of Microsoft that hasn’t sucked since Excel.«
- Of course, I was also in junior high school.«
- This period of time is also known as the dark ages.«
- I find this argument to be extremely feeble, as iPods play more music than any other PMP out there, due to their sole access to the iTunes Store. Add this to the fact that iPods are currently more affordable than ever, and I think you find that this 30% consists of Linux users, which is completely legitimate as there is no iTunes for Linux (although their absolutely should be), and overly-zealous anti-Apple frigtards.«
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:55 am
I think you are overestimating the draw of PlaysForSure. It never gained much traction to begin with, and now, of course, MS has decided to abandon it. The real problem being that it doesn’t inspire confidence in 3rd party manufacturers to subscribe to a standard that is abandoned, you can ask Mac game developers how they feel about the on and off nature of their relationship with Apple.
The real threat to the iPod’s PMP status would be a revitalized Sony. If they can ever let go of their dreams of owning the distribution media, the PSP could be a severe threat if equipped with a large hard drive and broad format support. Soften the styling a bit to seem a bit less hardcore and add some simple, fun puzzle games, and Sony could have a hit on their hands. They lack the will and desire for such a product which is why the PS3 didn’t dominate this round and their MP3 players have always been second rate.
What MS has always lacked is a grand sense of integration. Things just are never quite seamless in the way you would expect. Their multiplicity of products never quite mesh well. What they should do is establish some sort of Interoperability Czar who basically goes through current and upcoming products and makes sure that they are cross compatible in a logical manner. It just doesn’t quite work that way all the time at MS and is one of Apple’s main advantages.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Indeed, much has changed since I wrote this article. Zune has yet to surpass the Sansa as the number one non-iPod PMP, so at least I was right about something.
You are spot on regarding Microsoft’s lack of integration, which was the real point of this article. Zune just had come out, so I had some talking points. My larger point, however, still stands: Microsoft should stick to their guns and not try and be Apple. Microsoft has strengths, and the Xbox has proved they should stick to them.